Economy Surprising to the Upside

Economy Surprising to the Upside

September 25, 2019

Recent stock gains may not just be about a better trade tone or renewed central bank support. U.S. economic fundamentals have also improved.

The Citi U.S. Economic Surprise Index, a running average of economic data compared to economists’ forecasts, has recently reached levels not seen since April 2018, as shown in LPL Research’s Chart of the Day. Stocks have climbed back near records as data has improved, and stronger economic trends could provide support for further advances.

Large economic surprises in recent data span key economic sectors and include building permits, housing starts, service sector growth, and industrial production.

The upside surprises could indicate that reined-in growth expectations may have grown too pessimistic. While lowered expectations have created an easier target to beat, the string of upside surprises are a reassuring sign that the economy may be stabilizing at a growth rate near the expansion average.

It’s been our argument for some time that the U.S. economy is still exhibiting some positive fundamentals despite trade uncertainty, manufacturing weakness, and slowing global growth. Consumer spending in particular continues to be strong, supported by low unemployment, steady wage growth, contained inflation, and low interest rates.

“With all the negative economic news we’ve seen, it’s easy to miss the recent stretch of upside surprises,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “While the U.S. economy has slowed, it continues to show resilience in the face of softer global growth. Trade uncertainty may have offset the expected impact of fiscal stimulus on business spending, but we see still see some beneficial effects from new workers being pulled into the labor force. Add that to a more supportive Federal Reserve, and conditions remain in place for the expansion to continue despite some increased risks.”


The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual security. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted.

All indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Unmanaged index returns do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments.

This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.

Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (Member FINRA/SIPC). Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor, please note that LPL is not an affiliate of and makes no representation with respect to such entity.

If your advisor is located at a bank or credit union, please note that the bank/credit union is not registered as a broker-dealer or investment advisor. Registered representatives of LPL may also be employees of the bank/credit union. These products and services are being offered through LPL or its affiliates, which are separate entities from, and not affiliates of, the bank/credit union. Securities and insurance offered through LPL or its affiliates are:

Not FDIC or NCUA/NCUSIF Insured | No Bank or Credit Union Guarantee | May Lose Value | Not Guaranteed by Any Government Agency | Not a Bank/Credit Union Deposit

For Public Use | Tracking # 1-897351